Microsoft price target lowered to $540 from $610 at TD Cowen

Microsoft’s 10% three-day surge has pushed the RSI to an extreme 85.02, signaling significant exhaustion and making the TD Cowen price target cut a classic "sell the news" catalyst for a tactical correction. While the fundamental narrative remains strong due to aggressive GPU infrastructure scaling (30k Nvidia GPUs, IREN partnership), the $180 gap-down in the price target suggests institutional caution regarding the cost of that growth and potential margin compression in upcoming 10-Q filings. With volume currently at 1.36x average and the stock trading well above its short-term moving averages, this price action exhibits characteristics of a parabolic blow-off top rather than sustainable accumulation. Traders should expect a retest of near-term support near $410–$415; a failure to hold this level, given the overbought technicals, could trigger a deeper mean reversion toward $395. We view this as a high-risk entry point, suggesting a "wait-and-see" approach until the RSI cools below 70, as the confluence of overbought signals and downward analyst revisions increases the probability of a sharp, volatile pullback.