Oil is back above $100, and the move now looks more like a sustained supply-risk trade than a short-lived geopolitical jolt.
Recent price action has been driven by the same Iran conflict that has rattled energy markets for weeks, but the market’s focus has shifted toward how long disruptions could last and how much physical supply could stay constrained.
The Iran war has already triggered the biggest upward revision on record in its monthly oil-price poll, Reuters reported this week. Analysts now expect 2026 Brent to average $82.85, up sharply from $63.85 in February, while the same report said oil benchmarks have climbed about 60% since the conflict began on Feb. 28.
Oil above $100 is becoming a longer-running story
Front-month Brent traded at $104.63 in early April, while front-month WTI traded at $102.34. Brent finished March with a 64% gain, the biggest monthly increase since at least 1988, which shows how quickly traders have repriced supply risk.
The market is reacting less to day-by-day fear and more to the possibility of a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
That route normally handles about 20% of global oil and LNG transport, which helps explain why prices have stayed elevated even as traders continue to watch for diplomatic openings.
Oil by the numbers
Using Brent at $104.63 in early April as the current reference point, the latest rally looks much larger in historical context. Weekly Brent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that prices were materially lower three, six, and 12 months ago.
- 3 months ago: Brent was at $62.18; it's now up about 68.3% at $104.63.
- 6 months ago: Brent was at $69.22. That means the move to $104.63 is an approximately 51.2% increase.
- 12 months ago: Brent was at $74.35, making the current $104.63 a 40.7% jump.
The big oil names are still part of the trade
If crude stays above $100, the names most likely to be looked at are still Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
Exxon and Chevron remain the cleaner mega-cap oil trades, while Conoco and Occidental offer more direct upstream leverage and usually move harder when crude trends persist.
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The longer-term backdrop for each stock is also different. Exxon still has Guyana and Venezuela in focus, Chevron has fresh exploration moves in Libya and Greece, Conoco is trying to cut $1 billion in capital and costs after integrating Marathon Oil, and Occidental remains centered on debt reduction and balance-sheet repair.
How the big oil stocks have moved
Based on March 31, 2026, closing prices and the month-end closing prices from Dec. 31, 2025, Sept. 30, 2025, and March 2025, the recent run in the group still looks substantial even after Tuesday’s pullback.
Exxon closed at $169.66, Chevron at $206.90, ConocoPhillips at $132.00, and Occidental at $65.00.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): closed at $169.66 on March 31
Versus $119.54 on Dec. 31, 2025
$111.03 on Sept. 30, 2025
$114.98 on March 31, 2025
That works out to gains of about 41.9% over 3 months, 52.8% over 6 months, and 47.6% over 12 months.
- Chevron (CVX): closed at $206.90 on March 31
Versus $150.93 on Dec. 31, 2025
$152.09 at the end of September 2025
$163.46 at the end of March 2025
That works out to gains of about 37.1% over 3 months, 36.0% over 6 months, and 26.6% over 12 months.
- ConocoPhillips (COP): closed at $132.00 on March 31
Versus $93.61 on Dec. 31, 2025
$94.59 at the end of September 2025
$103.28 at the end of March 2025
That works out to gains of about 41.0% over 3 months, 39.6% over 6 months, and 27.8% over 12 months.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY): closed at $65.00 on March 31
Versus $41.12 at the end of December 2025
$46.98 at the end of September 2025
$48.54 at the end of March 2025
That works out to gains of about 58.1% over 3 months, 38.4% over 6 months, and 33.9% over 12 months.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Crude can spike on fear and fade quickly. The move above $100 is holding because the market is treating supply disruption as a continuing issue, not a short-term shock.
Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental have already had strong runs because of that, leaving investors weighing two questions at once.
- How long will the supply risk last?
- How much of the higher-for-longer oil story is already priced into the group?
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