SPY Research Archive

Complete daily research dossier: Executive analysis, morning notes, mid-day checks, and closing recaps

April 1, 2026

Wednesday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$654.08
Close
$655.18
+0.17%

SPY: Oversold Technicals vs. Macro Liquidity Constraints

The SPY is technically oversold to an extreme degree, suggesting a mechanical bounce is imminent. However, current sentiment is bearish and valuations remain historically stretched. We recommend waiting for a consolidation of the current RSI levels before adding exposure. The 'Buy the Dip' strategy is valid, but caution is warranted regarding long-term multiple compression.

Bull Case
  • Extreme RSI oversold condition (19.51) historically precedes sharp mean-reversion rallies.
  • Macro liquidity remains supported by potential fiscal stimulus measures and resilient labor market data.
  • SPY continues to benefit from long-term capital inflows into passive index products, providing a structural floor.
Bear Case
  • Negative sentiment cluster suggests institutional distribution and loss of confidence in current valuations.
  • Aggressive tightening cycles have compressed P/E multiples relative to the 10-year mean.
  • Broad market internals remain weak, suggesting the rally is losing breadth and vulnerable to sector-specific shocks.
Price Targets:
Bull: $665
Base: $628
Bear: $595
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
+70

SPY Rallies on Positive Market Outlook

The S&P 500 is trading up 1.18% this morning, buoyed by positive sentiment following a surprise bullish message from Goldman Sachs. The market is attempting to gain traction, though it remains under its 200-day SMA of $678.48. While the technical trend as indicated by the MACD remains cautious, the immediate momentum is firmly to the upside.

Support: $650.12
Resistance: $678.48
Earnings
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-40

SPY Breaches Support Amid Market Rout

The SPY is down 2.46% today, struggling to find a floor as macro uncertainty dominates trading. While Goldman Sachs recently issued a somewhat positive outlook, investors are clearly focused on the broader macroeconomic headwinds currently driving the indices lower. The index is trading significantly below its 200-day SMA of $678.48, underscoring the deep bearish trend currently in place.

Support: $630.00
Resistance: $650.00
Macro

March 31, 2026

Tuesday

Open
$638.90
Close
$650.12
+1.76%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-20

SPY Bounces Despite Lingering Risk Factors

The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 1.44% this morning, attempting to find footing despite a barrage of negative headlines regarding the worst monthly performance since 2022 and shifted risk-off regimes. While the index is reacting to optimistic geopolitical headlines, it remains significantly distanced from its 200-day SMA of $678.48. Traders should view this as a potential dead-cat bounce until consistent volume confirms a trend reversal.

Support: $630.00
Resistance: $678.48
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-40

SPY Rallies Despite Lingering Geopolitical Risk

The SPY is up 2.12% today, a move that defies the prevailing narrative of "risk-off" sentiment and bearish macro headlines regarding geopolitical tensions and economic health. While price action is currently robust, the index remains anchored significantly below its 200-day moving average of $678.47. Investors are closely monitoring the $650 level as the next potential hurdle for a sustainable recovery.

Support: $630.00
Resistance: $678.47
Macro

March 30, 2026

Monday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$639.86
Close
$632.02
-1.23%

SPY: Market Capitulation or Cyclical Correction?

The SPY is currently in a state of technical breakdown. While the extreme RSI level suggests a reflexive bounce is likely, the fundamental disconnect between valuations and current Treasury yields suggests this is a bear market rally trap. Do not deploy long-term capital until the RSI recovers above 30 and structural volume profiles stabilize.

Bull Case
  • Oversold condition (RSI < 20) historically signals a mean-reversion opportunity within 72 hours.
  • Institutional 'buy-the-dip' flow typically initiates when SPY breaches 2-sigma below the 50-day moving average.
  • Market participants anticipate potential dovish rhetoric to stabilize systemic liquidity during volatility spikes.
Bear Case
  • The RSI of 19.51 confirms extreme selling pressure, often preceding a transition from 'oversold' to 'structural decline'.
  • Market multiples remain elevated at 22x forward P/E despite high-interest rate environment, providing little cushion for earnings compression.
  • Macro-headwinds regarding sticky inflation suggest the 'soft landing' narrative is currently being priced out of the terminal rate.
Price Targets:
Bull: $655
Base: $605
Bear: $575
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Bounces Despite Negative Macro Headlines

The S&P 500 is up 0.5% this morning, attempting a recovery despite a barrage of negative macro headlines ranging from geopolitical instability to institutional liquidation. While technical indicators like the MACD remain bearish, the index is fighting to find a floor. Investors remain on edge, weighing Morgan Stanley's outlook for a nearing correction bottom against continued warnings from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.

Support: $625.00
Resistance: $678.48
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-90

SPY Succumbs to Global Risk Off

The S&P 500 (SPY) is trading down 3.08%, hammered by a confluence of geopolitical tension in the Middle East and institutional selling from trend-following funds. With major indices now firmly below the 200-day moving average of $678.48, the technical backdrop has deteriorated significantly. Broad market sentiment is currently dominated by risk-mitigation strategies as institutional participants reduce exposure across both equities and fixed income.

Support: $600.00
Resistance: $678.48
Macro

March 27, 2026

Friday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$642.48
Close
$634.04
-1.31%

SPY: Macro Consolidation Amidst Divergent Sentiment

SPY is currently caught in a liquidity vacuum. While fundamentals remain structurally sound, the technical confluence score of -1 suggests sellers are in control of the short-term trend. The index is trading near a pivot point where a failure to hold current levels could trigger a move toward the $615 support zone. We remain sidelined until the RSI stabilizes or a clear catalyst emerges to break the current negative momentum.

Bull Case
  • Robust underlying earnings growth across S&P 500 components despite high-rate environment.
  • Potential for year-end seasonal 'Santa Rally' as institutional positioning resets.
  • Relative strength in technology and AI-integrated firms continues to anchor index weightings.
Bear Case
  • RSI at 34.7 is approaching oversold territory, indicating waning buyer conviction and possible breakdown below structural supports.
  • Multiples remain historically stretched; Shiller P/E exceeds 35x, suggesting limited room for multiple expansion.
  • Macro headwinds: Persistent core inflation data threatens to stall Fed rate-cut expectations.
Price Targets:
Bull: $690
Base: $650
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

4:16 PM

Sentiment
-85

SPY Sinks on Geopolitical Escalation

The S&P 500 (SPY) is facing a sharp sell-off at the open, down 0.76% as markets react to a spike in oil prices following the escalation of the conflict in Iran. The surge in energy costs and heightened geopolitical risk has pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory, forcing investors to flee risk assets. While a recent outlook from Barclays provides a slight contrarian narrative, it is being entirely overshadowed by the macro-volatility. With the price currently trading at $640.19 and sitting well below the 200-day SMA of $679.46, the technical trend remains firmly bearish with negative momentum confirmed by the MACD cross.

Support: $635.00
Resistance: $645.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-80

SPY Sinks on Geopolitical Concerns

The SPY is down 1.39% as markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the resulting spike in energy costs. The index is trading well below its 200-day moving average of $679.46, reflecting sustained downward pressure across all major sectors. While some analysts are attempting to frame the volatility with long-term outlooks, the immediate price action remains firmly bearish.

Support: $625.00
Resistance: $679.00
Macro

March 26, 2026

Thursday

Open
$652.02
Close
$645.11
-1.06%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-10

SPY Opens Lower on Muted Volume

The S&P 500 is trading down 0.08% as the market looks for direction following recent volatility. The index continues to face downward pressure from the 200-day SMA ($679.46), and the negative MACD signal suggests that sellers remain in control of the near-term trend. The market is currently range-bound between $651 and $652, awaiting fresh economic catalysts to break the inertia.

Support: $651.00
Resistance: $656.74
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-90

SPY Extends Declines to Mid-Day

The S&P 500 (SPY) is down 0.99%, struggling to find a bid as market participants navigate a broad-based selloff. The index is trading at $645.58, well below its 200-day moving average, signaling a cautious environment. Without an immediate news catalyst, the focus remains on the persistent downward pressure across major benchmarks.

Support: $640.00
Resistance: $652.00
Macro

March 25, 2026

Wednesday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$658.66
Close
$656.74
-0.29%

SPY: Macro Consolidation Amidst Disinflationary Cooling

SPY is currently trading in a 'wait-and-see' zone. While fundamentals remain strong, technical indicators show a lack of immediate buying conviction. The current RSI suggests a short-term oversold bounce is possible, but macroeconomic headwinds warrant a defensive, neutral stance until structural support levels are re-tested and volume resumes.

Bull Case
  • Resilient corporate earnings growth despite higher-for-longer interest rate environments.
  • Potential for tactical rotation into cyclicals as inflation stabilizes near Fed targets.
  • Strong balance sheet liquidity across S&P 500 constituents providing a floor for buyback programs.
Bear Case
  • RSI at 34.7 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting momentum has shifted downward on macro uncertainty.
  • Current P/E multiples remain elevated compared to historical averages, limiting room for multiple expansion.
  • Geopolitical volatility remains a major headwind for global supply chains and earnings estimates.
Price Targets:
Bull: $685
Base: $650
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Fades Opening Gains

Despite headlines regarding potential Middle East de-escalation, the SPY has failed to hold its opening gap, currently trading down 0.36% at $656.27. The index remains under technical pressure, sitting significantly below the 200-day moving average of $679.46. With the MACD signaling continued downward momentum, the market remains in a "sell the rally" environment until it can reclaim recent pivot highs.

Support: $653.20
Resistance: $659.63
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-80

SPY Succumbs to Aggressive Selling

The S&P 500 (SPY) is under heavy distribution today, falling 3% to $638.90. Despite reports of positive news regarding Middle East de-escalation and individual analyst updates for major constituents like Microsoft, the broader market failed to sustain the opening levels. The index has rolled over significantly and is now trading well below its 200-day SMA of $679.46, signaling a technical breakdown of the broader market trend.

Support: $630.00
Resistance: $679.46
Macro

March 24, 2026

Tuesday

Open
$651.29
Close
$653.20
+0.29%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
+30

SPY Climbs as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

The S&P 500 (SPY) is rallying 0.61% this morning, driven by a positive shift in geopolitical sentiment following reports that the U.S. and regional powers are de-escalating tensions. While high oil prices and potential credit sector volatility remain concerns, the market is currently ignoring bearish headlines in favor of a relief rally. Investors are watching for follow-through above the $652 pivot point.

Support: $650.00
Resistance: $656.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-60

SPY Consolidates Amid Macro Pressures

The S&P 500 is hovering near the flatline as the market digests a series of negative macro headlines, including higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Volume remains in focus following recent volatility spikes. Technically, the SPY is currently trading below its 200-day SMA ($679.46) and shows a bearish MACD, indicating that the index is in a period of consolidation as investors weigh the impact of potential inflationary pressures.

Support: $650.00
Resistance: $660.00
Macro

March 23, 2026

Monday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$658.06
Close
$655.37
-0.41%

SPY: Extreme Oversold Condition Amid Market Liquidity Strain

SPY is currently in a state of technical capitulation. While the RSI 19.62 level suggests a short-term bounce is statistically probable, the negative sentiment tide indicates that price discovery is still searching for a floor. Avoid catching a falling knife; wait for a confirmed consolidation pattern before deploying capital.

Bull Case
  • RSI at 19.62 represents an extreme oversold condition, historically signaling an imminent mean-reversion bounce.
  • The SPY constituent basket remains fundamentally robust with aggregate earnings growth remaining resilient against current macro headwinds.
  • Systemic volatility often creates liquidity voids that professional desks utilize for entry, potentially triggering a 'V-shape' relief rally.
Bear Case
  • Negative sentiment cluster suggests the 'buy the dip' psychology is currently broken, potentially leading to forced liquidations.
  • Technical breakdown below critical supports has invalidated the previous bull channel, increasing the likelihood of further technical selling.
  • Market-wide multiples are currently compressed by elevated interest rate expectations, putting pressure on P/E expansion.
Price Targets:
Bull: $665
Base: $640
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
+80

SPY Rallies as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

The S&P 500 (SPY) is posting a strong 1.3% gain in early morning trade, catalyzed by reports that Trump has declared a five-day pause in Iran energy attacks. This relief rally is helping the market stabilize after recent volatility. While the index remains below its 200-day moving average of $679.52, the session's opening strength suggests a positive shift in risk appetite across the major indices.

Support: $648.48
Resistance: $679.52
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
+90

SPY Rallies on Geopolitical De-escalation

The SPY is leading the market higher, gaining 1.47% as traders react positively to the five-day pause in energy infrastructure attacks in Iran. The index is showing strong breadth, recovering from recent technical oversold conditions. While the 200-day SMA at $679.51 remains a primary overhead resistance target, the current move marks a significant relief rally for the broad market.

Support: $638.00
Resistance: $679.51
Macro

March 20, 2026

Friday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$656.50
Close
$648.48
-1.22%

SPY: Market Resilience vs. Macro-Liquidity Compression

The SPY currently sits in a holding pattern. While underlying corporate earnings are healthy, the lack of technical confluence and a cooling sentiment profile suggest investors are awaiting a clear catalyst. With valuations at the higher end of historical ranges, we maintain a neutral posture, preferring to wait for either a breakout above resistance or a more attractive valuation floor before committing further capital.

Bull Case
  • Continued earnings resilience across S&P 500 components despite high interest rate environment.
  • Potential for structural bullish reversal as market absorbs recent geopolitical and inflation-related negative sentiment.
  • Broad index diversification provides a hedge against individual company-specific failures.
Bear Case
  • RSI trending toward the lower end of the neutral range, indicating waning momentum rather than an oversold entry point.
  • Negative news cycle dominated by concerns regarding Fed policy duration and potential contraction in discretionary spending.
  • Current valuation multiples remain significantly above the 10-year historical mean, leaving little room for error in earnings execution.
Price Targets:
Bull: $715
Base: $670
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-80

SPY Gaps Lower on Yield Concerns

The SPY is down 0.47% as markets grapple with rising Treasury yields and shifting expectations for Fed rate policy. The index failed to hold the $656 level at the open and is struggling to find a bid. With the MACD signaling continued bearish momentum, investors are closely watching to see if the market can find support or if the current macro-driven selling will accelerate.

Support: $650.00
Resistance: $660.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-100

SPY Plunges on Geopolitical and Inflation Concerns

The S&P 500 (SPY) is suffering a sharp 3.97% drawdown today, falling to $630.44. A confluence of negative catalysts—Middle East turmoil and rising Treasury yields—has signaled to investors that the Federal Reserve may remain hawkish for longer. The index is trading well below its 200-day SMA of $679.35, confirming a breakdown in the primary trend.

Support: $625.00
Resistance: $679.35
Macro

March 19, 2026

Thursday

Open
$656.63
Close
$659.87
+0.49%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Higher Despite JPM Downgrade

The S&P 500 is trading up 0.33% this morning, showing resilience despite a cooling outlook from JPMorgan, which recently cited concerns over oil shocks and market complacency. Investors are balancing these macro warnings against a general upward trend at the open. The index remains well below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a continued defensive posture is necessary for the current rally.

Support: $655.00
Resistance: $662.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Flattens Under Macro Headwinds

The S&P 500 is hovering near the flat line as investors digest a more cautious outlook from JPMorgan, which lowered its year-end target citing oil shocks and market complacency. Trading remains range-bound between $655 and $656. With the index failing to reclaim its 200-day moving average and negative divergence appearing in institutional sentiment, the market is currently in a wait-and-see posture.

Support: $655.20
Resistance: $679.34
Macro

March 18, 2026

Wednesday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$668.35
Close
$661.54
-1.02%

SPY: Macro Policy Whiplash and Valuation Headwinds

The market is currently wrestling with extreme valuation premium vs. cooling macroeconomic sentiment. With an RSI of 44.6 and a zero-confluence technical setup, SPY is in a 'wait-and-see' zone. Downside protection is advised as the fundamental earnings-to-bond yield spread provides little margin of safety.

Bull Case
  • Resilient corporate earnings despite high interest rate environment.
  • Potential for tactical market rotation into defensive SPY components as inflation data stabilizes.
  • Historical tendency for broad market recovery following mid-cycle volatility.
Bear Case
  • Valuation multiples (P/E ~26x) remain significantly above historical 10-year average of ~19x.
  • Recent string of negative sentiment headlines points to growing uncertainty regarding fiscal policy.
  • Confluence score of 0/8 suggests a lack of institutional support at current price levels.
Price Targets:
Bull: $705
Base: $655
Bear: $610
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

S&P 500 Opens Lower on Cautious Sentiment

The SPY is dipping 0.22% this morning as investors digest macro headwinds. Despite positive chatter surrounding individual tech components like Nvidia, the broad market index is failing to find a foothold above the $668 level. Technicals remain challenged, with the index continuing to trade below the key 200-day moving average of $679.35, signaling a defensive posture for the session.

Support: $665.00
Resistance: $679.35
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-60

SPY Retreats Toward Key Support

The S&P 500 is shedding 1.01% as the index continues to drift away from the $670 level. Despite positive commentary from Bank of America regarding Nvidia, the broader market remains dominated by bearish sentiment. The index is trading well below its 200-day SMA of $679.35, signaling that the current downtrend remains in firm control of the tape.

Support: $661.61
Resistance: $679.35
Macro

March 17, 2026

Tuesday

Open
$672.38
Close
$670.75
-0.24%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
+20

SPY Struggles for Traction Despite Bullish Forecasts

The S&P 500 is trading down 0.19% at $671.13 this morning. Despite a positive report from Goldman Sachs reiterating their bullish outlook for the index, the market is currently struggling to reclaim the 200-day SMA at $678.93, indicating lingering macro-economic caution as price action remains pressured.

Support: $668.00
Resistance: $678.93
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-70

SPY Faces Sharp Correction

The SPY is under heavy selling pressure, down 3.01% as the broader market retreats. Despite a recent bullish sentiment report from Goldman Sachs, investors are ignoring long-term outlooks in favor of immediate risk-off positioning. Technically, the index has slipped well below its 200-day moving average of $679.06, confirming a breakdown in the intermediate-term trend.

Support: $650.00
Resistance: $679.00
Macro

March 16, 2026

Monday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$668.41
Close
$668.97
+0.08%

SPY: Oversold Technicals vs. Macro Liquidity Headwinds

SPY is currently in a state of technical capitulation, with an RSI below 22 indicating an extremely oversold position. While the macro sentiment is negative, the index is approaching a significant support zone. We advise caution; the fundamentals support the current valuation, but the momentum is currently too bearish to initiate a full position.

Bull Case
  • Extreme oversold condition (RSI < 22) historically signals a mean reversion setup in liquid ETFs.
  • Structural demand for S&P 500 earnings growth remains resilient at 9-10% YoY.
  • Potential for tactical buying from systematic vol-control funds once volatility stabilizes.
Bear Case
  • Persistent negative news cycle regarding sticky inflation and geopolitical instability.
  • Market valuation remains elevated against historical S&P 500 P/E averages (currently ~23x vs 10-year mean of 18x).
  • Flow data suggests institutional outflows are accelerating as macro uncertainty increases.
Price Targets:
Bull: $715
Base: $655
Bear: $610
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-20

SPY Navigates Energy Volatility

The S&P 500 (SPY) is essentially flat, up 0.04% as investors balance tech-driven strength against rising oil concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions. The market is struggling to break past its overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average ($678.72). Current price action remains range-bound as the market digests the potential impact of energy supply risks on broader inflation and growth.

Support: $667.80
Resistance: $678.72
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Digests Geopolitical Tension

The S&P 500 (SPY) is trading essentially flat, down 0.01% as the market weighs rising energy costs against tech sector performance. Geopolitical concerns regarding energy infrastructure have introduced a cautious tone to the session. With the price lingering at $668.32, the index remains below its 200-day moving average of $678.72, signaling a cautious macro environment.

Support: $667.80
Resistance: $678.72
Macro

March 13, 2026

Friday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$669.24
Close
$662.30
-1.04%

SPY: Extreme Oversold Condition Amid Macro Liquidity Contraction

SPY is currently technically distressed. While the oversold RSI suggests a short-term bounce is statistically probable, the lack of confluence indicates no institutional accumulation. We suggest staying liquid until price reclaims the $675 level to confirm a structural floor.

Bull Case
  • RSI at 25.50 indicates extreme oversold territory, historically prone to sharp mean-reversion rallies.
  • The S&P 500 constituents continue to show resilient earnings growth despite high interest rates.
  • Market sentiment is currently flushed of complacency, providing a reset for institutional re-entry.
Bear Case
  • Technicals are broken, with the index trading well below critical moving averages, indicating a shift in momentum.
  • Macro headwinds from persistent yield curve volatility and restrictive Fed policy weigh on forward valuations.
  • Volume profile suggests heavy distribution at the $680 level, creating a significant overhead supply ceiling.
Price Targets:
Bull: $705
Base: $655
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
+20

SPY Digests Robust Labor Data

The S&P 500 is down 0.23% in early trading following a report that job openings surpassed expectations. While a robust labor market is fundamentally positive, it has injected volatility into rate-sensitive sentiment. The index remains under pressure as it struggles to reclaim the 200-day moving average of $678.45.

Support: $660.00
Resistance: $678.45
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-80

SPY Slumps as Labor Data Sparks Volatility

The SPY is under heavy selling pressure, down 3.53% following reports that job openings remain more robust than anticipated. While typically a sign of economic health, the market is reacting with concern over potential policy implications. The index has broken decisively below its 200-day SMA of $678.54, confirming a shift toward a bearish technical posture.

Support: $630.00
Resistance: $678.54
Macro

March 12, 2026

Thursday

Open
$671.12
Close
$666.05
-0.75%
🌅

Morning Note

4:15 PM

Sentiment
-40

S&P 500 Struggles with Margin and Geopolitical Headwinds

The SPY is down 0.17% as investors weigh tightening profit margins and persistent Middle East tensions. Markets are finding little solace in oil price volatility, and the index is currently testing levels below its 200-day moving average of $678.03. Broad macro concerns regarding the impact of potential tariffs continue to serve as the primary headwind for equity sentiment.

Support: $668.00
Resistance: $678.03
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

8:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Consolidates Near Flatline Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

The SPY is effectively unchanged on the day as traders weigh the risks of rising oil prices against standard portfolio management advice. The index is struggling to reclaim its 200-day moving average ($678.16), and with negative MACD alignment, the short-term trend remains cautious. Market participants are treating current levels as a 'wait-and-see' zone as volatility remains elevated.

Support: $670.50
Resistance: $678.16
Macro

March 11, 2026

Wednesday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$677.68
Close
$676.34
-0.20%

SPY: Macro Headwinds and Liquidity Compression Analysis

SPY is currently in a consolidation phase characterized by a lack of institutional conviction. With a confluence score of zero and deteriorating sentiment, the market is vulnerable to a 'correction by rotation' if interest rates remain 'higher for longer' and earnings revisions turn negative. Current prices reflect significant optimism that is not currently backed by technical momentum.

Bull Case
  • Economic resilience: Strong labor market data suggests a 'soft landing' or 'no landing' scenario.
  • Corporate earnings remain robust for the S&P 500 constituents, supporting current valuations.
  • Potential for pivot-driven liquidity injection should inflation continue to trend toward the 2% mandate.
Bear Case
  • Valuation compression: Current P/E multiples are significantly above 10-year historical averages, leaving little room for error.
  • Technicals: The confluence score of 0/8 and an RSI trending lower signal lack of support at current levels.
  • Market Breadth: Narrow market participation indicates that the rally is dependent on a select few mega-cap stocks.
Price Targets:
Bull: $710
Base: $655
Bear: $615
🌅

Morning Note

2:15 PM

Sentiment
-30

SPY Faces Resistance at 200-Day Level

The SPY is stagnant at $677.13 ahead of the opening bell. Geopolitical anxieties stemming from the attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz are tempering risk appetite. The index is hovering right at the 200-day SMA of $677.54; failure to reclaim this level at the open could invite further selling pressure as traders hedge against potential supply chain disruptions.

Support: $670.00
Resistance: $677.54
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:15 PM

Sentiment
-40

SPY Dips on Strait of Hormuz Headlines

The S&P 500 (SPY) is trading lower by 0.2% today, pressured by geopolitical instability after a cargo ship was reportedly struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The index is currently struggling to maintain its footing near the 200-day moving average of $677.54. With the day's range tightening, market participants are monitoring further developments in the region for clues on the next directional move.

Support: $675.21
Resistance: $680.06
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:15 PM

Sentiment
-60

S&P 500 Fails to Reclaim SMA-200

The S&P 500 closed lower at $676.45, weighed down by macroeconomic concerns including tightening profit margins and geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The index struggled to maintain its 200-day moving average ($677.69) throughout the session, signaling a cautious end to the day as investors weigh the impact of potential trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

Support: $675.00
Resistance: $677.70
Macro

March 10, 2026

Tuesday

Open
$677.68
Close
$677.13
-0.08%
🌅

Morning Note

2:15 PM

SPY Braces for Macro-Heavy Week

The S&P 500 (SPY) is flat at $678.30 in early trading as investors digest a heavy macro calendar ahead. The index remains precariously positioned near its 200-day SMA of $676.99. Until the market establishes a clear direction for the week, expect tight consolidation near these levels as the broader market searches for a catalyst to break from its recent sideways trend.

Support: $677.00
Resistance: $682.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:15 PM

Sentiment
+40

SPY Extends Gains Above Critical Support

The S&P 500 is trading up 0.61%, maintaining a positive tone in a week characterized by heavy macro focus. The index is holding firmly above its 200-day moving average of $676.99, which is providing a stable floor for today's price action. As long as current levels hold, the bulls remain in control of the intraday trend.

Support: $677.00
Resistance: $685.00
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:15 PM

SPY Closes Flat as Investors Await Macro Direction

The S&P 500 (SPY) finished largely unchanged, slipping 0.02% to close at $677.58. The index is currently testing its 200-day moving average ($677.00), suggesting a high-stakes standoff between buyers and sellers as the market enters a week dominated by macro uncertainty. Volatility was contained, reflecting a "wait-and-see" approach from institutional participants.

Support: $674.81
Resistance: $678.73
Macro

March 9, 2026

Monday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$666.38
Close
$678.30
+1.79%

SPY: Market Capitulation and RSI Oversold Conditions

SPY is currently technically oversold with an RSI flirting with the 30 support level. While market sentiment is heavily negative, the lack of systemic liquidity issues suggests this is a temporary valuation recalibration rather than a structural breakdown. Expect a consolidation period at these levels before a potential technical rebound.

Bull Case
  • RSI approaching 30 historically indicates a classic oversold bounce for S&P 500 index products.
  • The broader market retains structural earnings growth despite temporary macro-pessimism.
  • Mean reversion is statistically likely as the index tests long-term support levels near current prices.
Bear Case
  • Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, suggesting institutional distribution or hedging flows are active.
  • Macro headwinds are compressing valuation multiples, pushing the P/E ratio toward long-term historical norms.
  • Lack of immediate bullish catalysts suggests the current downward momentum could breach support before stabilization.
Price Targets:
Bull: $715
Base: $650
Bear: $610
🌅

Morning Note

2:15 PM

Sentiment
-90

Broad Market Retreats as Oil Price Surge Hits Sentiment

The SPY is set for a rocky start as inflation fears dominate the narrative, driven by crude oil breaching $100/barrel and a concurrent jump in Treasury yields. Trading below its 200-day moving average of $676.33, the market is bracing for a volatile session as investors digest the heightened risks of stagflation.

Support: $660.00
Resistance: $676.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:15 PM

Sentiment
+40

SPY Rallies Despite Inflation Jitters

The SPY is up 0.62% despite bearish headlines regarding crude oil prices and stagflation fears. After an opening print of $666.38, the index has managed to trade in positive territory, currently hovering near $670.48. While the macro outlook remains clouded by inflationary concerns, the price action suggests investors are currently looking past these risks.

Support: $662.42
Resistance: $676.33
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:15 PM

Sentiment
+40

SPY Defies Inflation Fears to Close Higher

Despite initial morning warnings regarding stagflation and skyrocketing crude prices, the S&P 500 (SPY) rallied to close up 1.53%. The index successfully navigated a turbulent session to test its 200-day moving average, a critical technical hurdle. The market's ability to shake off negative macro sentiment suggests strong underlying buying interest at current levels.

Support: $662.42
Resistance: $676.56
Macro

March 6, 2026

Friday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$673.41
Close
$672.44
-0.14%

SPY: Market Resilience vs. Macro-Liquidity Headwinds

SPY is currently in a state of consolidation. While underlying corporate balance sheets remain robust, the current price is disconnected from historical value averages, and technical momentum is neutral. We advise patience until price action clarifies near the SMA 50 or demonstrates a breakout above recent range highs.

Bull Case
  • Resilient corporate earnings growth in the S&P 500 tech sector supporting forward P/E multiples.
  • Expectations for monetary easing cycles acting as a floor for equity valuations.
  • Historically strong Q4 seasonality and retail participation in index-tracking vehicles.
Bear Case
  • Market valuation currently sits significantly above the historical S&P 500 mean P/E, limiting further expansion.
  • Macro-economic uncertainty regarding sticky inflation metrics potentially delaying rate cut efficacy.
  • Technical weakness indicated by a low confluence score (1/8) suggesting a lack of broad-based buying conviction.
Price Targets:
Bull: $735
Base: $685
Bear: $610
🌅

Morning Note

2:15 PM

Sentiment
+10

SPY Faces Geopolitical Headwinds

The S&P 500 begins the session flat at $681.41 as investors weigh conflicting macro signals. While optimism surrounding new product cycles is providing a floor, the broader index is being tempered by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The index is holding slightly above its 200-day moving average ($675.65), and market participants are waiting for further clarity on inflation and growth before committing to a decisive trend.

Support: $675.65
Resistance: $685.00
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:15 PM

Sentiment
-40

SPY Breaks Below 200-Day SMA as Macro Pressures Mount

The SPY is down 1.08% as investors digest conflicting headlines. While corporate product developments and labor data provide potential tailwinds, global geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs are driving a broad market sell-off. The breach of the 200-day moving average at $675.65 suggests increased selling pressure as the index struggles to find a footing.

Support: $670.00
Resistance: $675.65
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:15 PM

Sentiment
-60

SPY Breaks Below 200-Day Support

The S&P 500 closed the session down 1.34% to $672.29, slipping beneath the pivotal 200-day moving average of $675.91. Market sentiment was weighed down by a combination of rising geopolitical tensions and lingering doubts regarding the health of the labor market. Investors are showing signs of risk aversion as macro headwinds continue to pressure major indices.

Support: $665.00
Resistance: $676.00
Macro

March 5, 2026

Thursday

Open
$682.09
Close
$681.40
-0.10%
🌅

Morning Note

2:17 PM

Sentiment
+70

SPY Set to Gap Higher on Bullish Market Sentiment

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is indicating a strong open, trading up 0.5% in the pre-market session. This positive momentum comes as a strategist from Citadel Securities turns explicitly bullish on US stocks, providing a significant tailwind for the broader market. SPY is currently trading at $685.13, well above yesterday's high of $683.47, suggesting a notable gap up at the opening bell. This move reflects a broadly optimistic outlook, with the market responding positively to the prevailing sentiment and analyst commentary.

Support: $683.47
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:18 PM

Sentiment
-20

SPY Retreats Modestly Amid Intraday Consolidation

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading slightly in the red during midday action, down 0.17% to $680.55. After opening at $681.69 and pushing to an intraday high of $683.47, the broader market has seen a modest pullback, unable to hold its early gains. While general market commentaries on gold and geopolitical impacts are circulating, the current price action appears to be more of a technical consolidation following the initial open rather than a direct reaction to these broader news items. The market is showing slight relative weakness as it dips below its open. Key levels to watch include the day's open now acting as resistance, and the psychological $680 level as immediate support.

Support: $680.00
Resistance: $681.69
Technical
🌇

Closing Recap

9:17 PM

Sentiment
-10

SPY Registers Modest Dip as Market Digests Quiet Session

The S&P 500 (SPY) concluded the trading day with a slight decline, shedding 0.27% to close at $679.85. The index traded within a narrow range between its session high of $683.47 and low of $681.43, indicating a relatively quiet session lacking major catalysts. Broader market sentiment appeared to be the primary driver, with no significant economic data or geopolitical events to prompt a larger move. While Morgan Stanley's commentary on gold prices was noted, it held little direct sway over equity performance. SPY continues to hold above its critical 200-day simple moving average of $674.00, suggesting underlying resilience despite today's minor pullback.

Support: $674.00
Resistance: $683.47
Macro

March 4, 2026

Wednesday

2:00 PM ET
Open
$681.69
Close
$685.13
+0.50%

SPY: Macro Headwinds and Negative Sentiment Signal Caution

Given the strongly negative recent sentiment and technical signals indicating an 'AVOID / SELL,' SPY faces significant headwinds. While potential catalysts like a Fed pivot or resilient earnings exist, the macro environment, persistent inflation concerns, and potential for underlying corporate stress (due to high rates and possible overvaluation) present considerable downside risk. Investors should exercise extreme caution, and a speculative bearish stance is warranted until clearer economic trends emerge.

Bull Case
  • Potential for easing inflation data leading to market anticipation of a dovish Fed pivot or future rate cuts.
  • Stronger-than-expected Q4 corporate earnings from S&P 500 components, indicating resilience in a challenging economic environment.
  • Significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, reducing market uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
  • Persistent inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain aggressive rate hikes, increasing recession fears and tightening financial conditions.
  • Worsening economic indicators (e.g., rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, manufacturing contraction) signaling an impending recession.
  • Confluence score of -3/8 and an 'AVOID / SELL' technical recommendation suggest further downside momentum and potential breach of key support levels.
Price Targets:
Bull: $750
Base: $700
Bear: $600
🌅

Morning Note

2:17 PM

Sentiment
+40

SPY Futures Rebound as Geopolitical Tensions Linger

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is showing resilience in pre-market trading, with futures indicating a solid 0.78% gain, suggesting a gap-up at the open. This comes despite an intensely negative backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions centered around an Iran conflict, which recent reports suggest led to a 2% market collapse on March 3rd and has pushed Wall Street's 'fear gauge' higher. Today's positive move appears to be a rebound or a relief rally, as the market digests the latest developments, including reports of a US strike on an Iranian warship. While the underlying sentiment remains cautious, SPY is currently trading above its 200-day simple moving average, signaling some technical strength amid the macro headwinds.

Support: $674.00 (200-day SMA)
Resistance: $685.00 (Psychological)
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:17 PM

Sentiment
+40

S&P 500 Defies Geopolitical Tensions, Pushes Higher Mid-Day

The S&P 500 (SPY) is showing resilience this morning, trading up 0.65% to $686.11 despite a flurry of negative macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines. The market has largely shaken off escalating concerns regarding the Iran conflict, including reports of a US strike and a rising 'fear gauge' in options markets. While Wolfe Research warned of a potential drop to 6500, the index is currently pushing past its earlier intraday high, suggesting underlying strength or a 'buy the dip' mentality. The positive outlook from a Citadel Securities strategist may also be providing some counterbalance. SPY opened at $681.69 and hit an intraday low of $681.43 before grinding higher, indicating a strong move off the morning lows.

Support: $681.43
Resistance: $687.00
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:17 PM

Sentiment
+30

S&P 500 Demonstrates Resilience, Closes Higher Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The S&P 500 (SPY) concluded the trading day with a gain of 0.56%, closing at $685.54. This advance came despite a backdrop of escalating geopolitical concerns stemming from the Iran conflict, including reports of a US strike on an Iranian warship, and warnings from strategists like Wolfe predicting a potential drop to 6500. While other global markets, such as Korean stocks, reportedly crashed due to the Iran war, the domestic benchmark showed notable resilience. SPY managed to shrug off these significant negative headlines and a primarily bearish news flow, closing above its daily high of $683.47 and well above its 200-day Simple Moving Average of $674.00, signaling underlying strength.

Support: $674.00 (200-day SMA)
Macro

March 3, 2026

Tuesday

Open
$675.03
Close
$680.29
+0.78%
🌅

Morning Note

2:17 PM

Sentiment
-80

SPY Futures Point Lower as Middle East Tensions Weigh on Market

SPY futures are signaling a weaker open for the market, currently trading down 0.21% in pre-market action at $686.35. The primary catalyst for this negativity stems from intensifying geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, with headlines citing the Iran conflict and its potential to drag on, alongside surging oil prices. This broader macroeconomic uncertainty is pressuring equity futures. The market is expected to gap down from its last close, with the projected open at $687.81. Traders will be watching for initial support levels as the market digests the overnight developments, with the Dow leading a modest retreat in pre-bell trading.

Support: $680.39
Resistance: $687.81
Macro
☀️

Mid-Day Check

5:17 PM

Sentiment
+30

SPY Shows Resilience, Shrugs Off Geopolitical Tensions Mid-Day

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading higher, up 0.32% mid-session, demonstrating resilience despite earlier headlines detailing intensifying Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. While pre-market sentiment was notably negative, with reports of futures falling and fears of prolonged conflict, the market has since recovered, now pushing towards new intraday highs at $677.18. The SPY is comfortably holding above its 200-day Simple Moving Average of $674.00, signaling underlying strength as it attempts to reclaim lost ground. Current price action suggests the broader market is currently digesting and ultimately looking past the geopolitical noise, focusing instead on potential domestic catalysts or technical strength.

Support: $675.00 (Open)
Resistance: $677.18 (Intraday High)
Macro
🌇

Closing Recap

9:16 PM

Sentiment
+50

SPY Rallies to Close Higher, Defying Geopolitical Concerns

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) showcased remarkable resilience today, closing up 0.76% at $686.35. This strong finish comes despite a barrage of negative headlines surrounding escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which sent futures lower pre-bell and sparked initial market jitters. The index recovered decisively from its daily low of $674.87, trading through early resistance levels, and ultimately closing above its 200-day simple moving average of $674.002. While the 'fear gauge' rose, SPY's ability to not only recover but also post solid gains signals the market's underlying strength and willingness to look past immediate headwinds.

Support: $674.87 (Day's Low), $674.00 (200-day SMA)
Macro